All Swans are White or Shooting Down Theories
Posted in Philosophy of life, Realisations on May 17th, 2010 by Christiaan – 5 CommentsYou know Darwin right? That guy who thought up the theory of evolution. Is he right or is he wrong? A continued debate that I fear will never end. We all have our own theories about evolution.
Theories cover everything in life. You think you know how (a part of) life works. There is a lot of theory on running a successful blog, making that illusive online income and in other areas like brewing your morning cup of coffee and the ideal line through a corner with a motorcycle. There is nothing in life that someone hasn’t developed a theory about. There is nothing in life that nobody preaches about.
Looking for theories
Internet is absolutely full of theories. Among the more popular are those about passive incomes, low-hour workweeks, location independence and rocking on the social media. These theories get written down in blogs and circulated through ebooks and membership sites. So these theories seem to be correct. You can generate an income this way or become a social media rockstar. Thousands of subscribers are proof of that.
Internet hasn’t always been here (Yes I know it’s shocking, what did all those people do with their time before the internet.) and so they had books and journals to publish their theories in. It actually still is the best place to look for good scientific theory backed by scientific research. I have more trust in something that is published in Nature than what is published on the Huffington Post. Likewise I have more trust in scientific papers than what you can read on Wikipedia. Last but not least books are better than blogs.
Theories are omnipresent. But they are just theories until you prove them.
Proving a theory
Going back to Darwin, will anyone ever be able to prove he was right? There is evidence everywhere around you, you just have to open your eyes. Or so you would think. There is enough out there that doesn’t conflict with Darwin’s theory, and so far nobody has come with a sound falsification, that is, something that shows Darwins theory on evolution is wrong.
A classic to show what I mean here is “All swans are white”, a very nice theory and in most parts of the world nobody has ever seen a swan that’s not white, excluding cygnets who are greyish but will turn white when they mature. If all swans are white, then what’s this:
Let’s just ignore it and maybe it will go away. All swans are white! That’s how it works with most people, presented with clear proof that a theory is wrong they will persist in believing their theory. Even though this animal has a scientific name and everything. Feed it and it will come closer. Try to come to close it’s offspring and it will attack you. “The truth hurts” gets a whole new meaning while you rush to hospital for stitches.
Critical Rationalism
Presenting theories and “proof” is what scientists try to do. Bloggers try to do the same, marketing people and sales people are even worse. Presenting all kinds of “proof” that what they are telling you actually works. Well, of course it works for them! They did it that way or at least say they did and now you’re eager to adopt the latest method and you’re sure that it will work for you too. But not all theories are as sound as Darwin’s.
Enter Karl Popper, a philosopher who lived in the 20th century. He rejected classical empiricism (knowledge through experiments) and suggested to think the other way round. Trying to prove a theory wrong instead of trying to prove it right.
The black swan is the perfect example, just one black swan will shoot down the theory that all swans are white. It’s your choice to look away or not.
Hitting yourself with a hammer will hurt. But how do you know that hitting yourself the next time will hurt as well? You can hit yourself to find out of course, that’s empirical proof that it did hurt. But to prove the next hit will hurt you’d have to hit yourself again. You won’t like where that’s going. The other way round, thinking like Popper you give the theory that hitting yourself with a hammer hurts and you challenge anyone to prove your theory wrong. At the very least it provides you with less discomfort.
Stepping on dreams
Being a critic isn’t a very rewarding, glorious job but someone has to do it. Especially when everyone is blinded by theories and promises of glory, riches or eternal life if only they follow a few simple rules that seem to have worked for whoever it is that makes the promises.
Should you stop dreaming? Of course not! Just keep reality in mind and try and poke holes in things that seem to good to be true. They always are.











